Nothing New Under the Sun

2004-03-06T06:28:00.000-08:00

A big economic and political issue is that of "outsourcing" American jobs overseas, to countries like India and China. Columnist George Will opines that this is nothing new; Americans have always lost jobs, and they've always been able to retrain and regroup with new and better jobs. Is Will right? Is the outsourcing of American jobs really nothing new under the sun? Or is this a new era in which the old rules don't apply? Will Americans, this time around, be unable to replace the lost jobs with other jobs that cannot themselves be outsourced? In any case, it appears there may not be a "solution" to this problem -- only a set of trade-offs (see Thomas Sowell's comment in my Feb. 9 post).

2004-02-12T10:17:00.000-08:00

There is a lot -- a lot -- of doom and gloom sentiment these days. Here are just a few examples:
-John Derbyshire, a writer for National Review and the self-proclaimed "house pessimist" for that magazine, writes here about Sir Martin Rees' hypothesis that the human race is unlikely to make it through the 21st century (Rees believes that either we will be done in by the increased ease with which bad guys will be able to acquire and employ weapons of mass destruction -- or by unintended consequences of our hubris in exploring scientific advance. Derbyshire agrees with Rees' conclusions).
-Derbyshire also notes this item from Fortune magazine that suggests the earth could undergo climate changes (not necessarily from human-caused global warming) of such magnitude and swiftness that they result in complete re-ordering of the socio-political status quo in a period of just a few years.
-Marshall Brain, creator of the popular web site "How Stuff Works", has written a series of articles (and a novel) outlining his thesis that we have entered an era of techological advance that will finally make possible some very old science fiction dreams of robots becoming ubiquitous in our society. A wonderful development -- or a nightmare that will cause massive unemployment and the eventual creation of a police state in this country? Read Brain's musings and decide.
-Brain also has a blog which includes a regular feature called "Something else to worry about". One of the latest entries is a link to this site which paints a picture of a near-term future in which the end of availability of affordable oil results in world-wide poverty, famine, wars, and death on an unimaginable scale.

So, let's recap. Here are just a few of the things that not only could -- but, according to these pundits, probably will -- happen to us in our lifetimes; maybe sooner rather than later:
- Vastly increased terrorist-caused death and destruction
- Catastrophic climate change (again, whether man-made or not)
- Lack of nearly enough energy to cope with the climate change or the demands of the world's population
- Calamitous global economic upheaval
- Technological advances that outstrip our ability to handle and manage them
- The end of civilization as we know it

Question: Which, if any, of these items have never happened before? Are any of them truly something new under the sun?

2004-02-09T20:14:00.000-08:00

Economist and pundit Thomas Sowell shares this anecdote, which sugggests that there's nothing new under the sun in either economics or politics:

Once, after giving a talk, I was confronted by a lady in the audience who asked what some people regard as the ultimate question:

"What is YOUR solution?"

"There are no solutions," I said. "There are only trade-offs."

"The people DEMAND solutions!" she shot back angrily.

The people can demand square circles if they want. But that doesn't mean that they will get them. What they are more likely to get is the illusion of a solution by someone seeking their vote.

2004-02-04T18:11:00.000-08:00

This blog will take a look at current events, and consider whether they confirm or disprove this thesis from the Old Testament book Ecclesiastes:

What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there anything of which one can say,
"Look! This is something new"?
It was here already, long ago;
it was here before our time.